It’s the Economy, not European Identity: The Effect of European Identity and Economic Considerations on Public Support for EU Membership in Turkey and Central and Eastern European Countries
Süddeutsche Zeitung, 29 March 2010. See also Deutsche Welle, 18 December 2004. Günes Becerik, “Turkey’s Accession to the EU: A Test Case for the Relevance of Identity,” Turkish Policy Quarterly 5, no. 4 (2006); Efe Çaman and Kenan Dağcı, “Avrupa Birliği - Türkiye İlişkilerinde Türk ve Türkiye İmajı” / “Image of Turkey in the EU – Turkey Relations: European Identity And The Problem of Turkey’s Belongings to Europe”, International Joint Conference, 10th Knowledge Economy and Management Congress, Istanbul, (08-10 November 2012); Samuel, P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. (New York: Touchstone, 2002).
Heinz Kramer, “Turkey and the EU: The EU’s Perspective,” Insight Turkey 8, no. 4 (2006): 24-32; Meltem Müftüler-Bac, “The Never‐Ending Story: Turkey and the European Union,” Middle Eastern Studies 34, no. 4 (1998): 240-258.
Ali Carkoglu, “Who Wants Full Membership? Characteristics of Turkish Public Support of EU Membership,” in Turkey and the European Union: Domestic Politics, Economic Integration and International Dynamics, eds. Ali Carkoglu and Barry Rubin (London and Oregon: Frank Cass, 2003), 171-195; Ali Carkoglu and Çiğdem Kentmen, "Diagnosing Trends and Determinants in Public Support for Turkey's EU Membership" South European Society and Politics 16, no. 3 (2011): 365-379.
Gizem Arikan, “Attitudes Towards the European Union in Turkey: The Role of Perceived Threats and Benefits,” Perceptions 17, no. 3 (2012): 81-103; Carkoglu, “Who Wants Full Membership?”; Özlem Elgün and Erik R. Tillman, "Exposure to European Union Policies and Support for Membership in The Candidate Countries," Political Research Quarterly 60, no. 3 (2007): 391-400.
Çigdem Kentmen, "Comparing Individual Attitudes about EU Membership in Turkey and in Post-Communist Central and Eastern European Countries," All Azimuth 1, no. 2 (2012): 5.
Bulent Aras and Salih Bicakci. "Europe, Turkey and the Middle East: Is Harmonisation Possible?" East European Quarterly 40, no. 3 (2006): 367; Nilay Baycar, “Turkish Cultural Identity: A European Identity,” Turkish Journal of Politics (2013): 5; Efe Çaman, “Türkische Außenpolitik Zwischen EU-Integration und Regionaler Orientierung,” in Südosteuropa Mitteilungen 3 (2006): 16-31; Kenan Dagci, “Turkey's Integration Process into the EU and Its Implication to Turkey’s Foreign Policy,” Proc. 1st (Int.) Scientific Conference “Changes In Social And Business Environment,” Panevezys, 17-19, Panevezys-Lithuania, 2006; Bülend Aydın Ertekin, “Could Turkey Be a Dominant Regional Power?: The Rise of Turkey as a Country of Middle-East and Europe,” Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations 11, no. 1 (2012): 11 no.1; Hasan Kösebalaban, “The Permanent ‘Other’? Turkey and the Question of European Identity,” Mediterranean Quarterly 18, no. 4 (2007): 87-111; Bahar Rumelili, “Turkey: Identity, Foreign Policy, and Socialization in a Post-Enlargement Europe,” European Integration 33, no. 2 (2011): 235-249; Martina Warning and Tuncay Kardaş, “The Impact of Changing Islamic Identity on Turkey’s New Foreign Policy,” Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations 10, no. 2-3 (2011): 123-140.
Atilla Eralp and Özgehan Şenyuva (eds.), Türkiye – AB İlişkilerinin Tarihsel Gelişimi ve Dönüşümü, Haşimi, Cemal (İstanbul: Avrupa ve Avrupa Birliği, 2011).
Nergis Canefe and Mehmet Ugur (eds.), Turkey and European Integration: Accession Prospects and Issues (London: Routledge, 2004); Meltem Müftüler-Bac, “Turkey in the EU’s Enlargement Process: Obstacles and Challenges,” Mediterranean Politics 7, no. 2 (2002): 79-95; Ziya Öniş, “Luxembourg, Helsinki and Beyond: Towards an Interpretation of Recent Turkey-EU Relations,” Government and Opposition 35, no. 04 (2000): 463-483; C. Rumford, “From Luxembourg to Helsinki: Turkey and the Politics of EU Enlargement and the Prospects of Accession,” Contemporary Politics 6 no. 4 (2000): 331-343; Frank Schimmelfennig, “Entrapped Again: The Way to EU Membership Negotiations with Turkey,” International Politics 46, no. 4 (2009): 413-431. See also the European Commission's document on Turkey’s membership, which clearly states that because of its geography, population, size, and cultural and religious characteristics, Turkey’s accession would be different from previous enlargements. Available at http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/archives/pdf/key_documents/2004/issues_paper_en.pdf. (accessed: June 1 2015).
Harry Flam, “Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession,” CESifo Economic Studies 50, no. 1 (2004): 171-210; Lauren M. McLaren, “Explaining Opposition to Turkish Membership of the EU,” European Union Politics 8, no. 2 (2007): 251-278; Frank Schimmelfennig, Stefan Engert, and Heiko Knobel, “Costs, Commitment and Compliance: The Impact of EU Democratic Conditionality on Latvia, Slovakia and Turkey,” Journal of Common Market Studies 41, no. 3 (2003): 495-518.
Pinar Bilgin, “A Return to ‘Civilisational Geopolitics’ in the Mediterranean? Changing Geopolitical Images of the European Union and Turkey in the Post-Cold War Era,” Geopolitics 9, no. 2 (2004): 269-291; Thomas Diez, “Europe’s Others and the Return of Geopolitics," Cambridge Review of International Affairs 17, no. 2 (2004): 319-335; John Redmond, “Turkey and the European Union: troubled European or European trouble?” International Affairs 83, no. 2 (2007): 305-317.
Carl Dahlman, “Turkey’s Accession to the European Union: The Geopolitics of Enlargement,” Eurasian Geography and Economics 45, no. 8 (2004): 553-574; Müftüler-Bac, “Turkey in the EU’s Enlargement Process”.
Bülent Aras and Bülent Gökay, “Turkey after Copenhagen: Walking a Tightrope,” Journal of Southern Europe and the Balkans Online 5, no. 2 (2003): 147-163; Juergen Gerhards and Silke Hans, “Why not Turkey? Attitudes towards Turkish Membership in the EU among Citizens in 27 European Countries,” Journal of Common Market Studies 49 (2011): 1- 26; William Hale, “Human Rights, the European Union and the Turkish Accession Process,” Turkish Studies 4, no. 1 (2003): 107-126; Saban Kardas, “Human Rights and Democracy Promotion: The Case of Turkey-EU Relations,” Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations 1, no. 3 (2002): 136-50; Schimmelfennig/Engert/Knobel, “Costs, Commitment and Compliance”.
Öniş, “Luxembourg, Helsinki and Beyond”; Semin Suvarierol, “The Cyprus Obstacle on Turkey's Road to Membership in the European Union,” Turkish Studies 4, no. 1 (2003): 55-78.
Mirela Bogdani, Turkey and the Dilemma of EU Accession: When Religion Meets Politics, (New York: IB Tauris, 2010); Yucel Bozdaglioglu, Turkish Foreign Policy and Turkish Identity: A Constructivist Approach (New York and London: Routledge, 2003); Huntington, Clash of Civilizations; Müftüler-Bac, “The Never‐Ending Story”; Kevin Robins, “Interrupting Identities: Turkey/Europe,” Questions of Cultural Identity, eds. Stuart. Hall and Paul du Gay (London: Sage 1997), 61-86; Nuri A. Yurdusev, “The Formation of European Identity and the Turkish Identity,” in Turkey and Europe, ed A. Eralp (Ankara: Imge 1997), 17-87.
Canan Balkır, “Turkey’s Road to EU Membership: Economic Outlook,” Köz-Gazdaság Special Issue 3 (2010): 1-16; Meltem Müftüler-Bac, “Through the Looking Glass: Turkey and Europe,” Turkish Studies 1 no. 1 (2000): 21-35.
Carkoglu, “Who Wants Full Membership?”
I. Pavlovaite, “Being European by Joining Europe: Accession and Identity Politics in Lithuania,” Cambridge Review of International Affairs 16 no. 2 (2003): 239-255; Ole Weaver, “Explaining Europe by Decoding Discourses,” in Explaining European Integration, ed. Anders Wivel (Copenhagen: Copenhagen Political Studies, 1998), 100-146; Iris M. Young, Inclusion and Democracy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000); S. Togan and V. N. Balasubramanyam (eds.), Turkey and Central and Eastern European Countries in Transition: Towards Membership of the EU (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2001).
The data and the codebook describing the questions are available for academic and public use from the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) at http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/ICPSR/studies/4056 and Leibniz Institute for Social Science at http://zacat.gesis.org.
Liesbet Hooghe and Gary Marks, “A Postfunctionalist Theory of European Integration: From Permissive Consensus to Constraining Dissensus,” British Journal of Political Science 39, no. 01 (2009): 1-23; Andrew Moravcsik, “Negotiating the Single European Act: National Interests and Conventional Statecraft in the European Community,” International Organization 45, no. 01 (1991): 19-56; Christopher J. Anderson and Karl C. Kaltenthaler, “The Dynamics of Public Opinion toward European Integration, 1973-93." European Journal of International Relations 2, no. 2 (1996): 175-199.
Neil Fligstein, Euroclash: The EU, European Identity, and the Future of Europe (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2008); Thomas Risse, “Neofunctionalism, European Identity and the Puzzles of European Integration,” Journal of European Public Policy 12 no. 2 (2005): 291-309.; Hooghe/Marks, “A Postfunctionalist Theory”.
Hajo G. Boomgaarden, Andreas R.T. Schuck, Matthijs Elenbaas, and Claes H. De Vreese, “Mapping EU Attitudes: Conceptual and Empirical Dimensions of Euroscepticism and EU Support,” European Union Politics 12, no. 2 (2011): 241-266; Jack Citrin and John Sides, “More than Nationals: How Identity Choice Matters in the New Europe,” in Transnational Identities: Becoming European in the EU, ed. Richard Herrmann, Thomas Risse, and Marilynn Brewer (USA and UK: Rowman and Littlefield, 2004): 161-185; Neil Fligstein, Alina Polyakova, and Wayne Sandholtz, “European Integration, Nationalism and European Identity,” Journal of Common Market Studies 50, no. 1 (2012): 106-122; Thomas Risse, “The Euro between National and European Identity,” Journal of European Public Policy 10, no. 4 (2003): 487-505.
Cronbach’s alpha is an indicator of the reliability of an index. Values closer to 1 indicate high reliability; values around 0.4-0.5 indicate moderate reliability. A value of 0 indicates lack of reliability.
Names of explanatory variables are presented in italics throughout the text.
Cristopher Anderson, “When in Doubt, Use Proxies: Attitudes Towards Domestic Politics and Support for European Integration,” Comparative Political Studies 31 no.5 (1998): 569-601; Adam Brinegar, Seth Jolly, Herbert Kitschelt, “Varieties of Capitalism and Political Divides over European Integration,” European Integration and Political Conflict, eds. Garry Marks and Marco R. Steenbergen (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), 62-89; Matthew Gabel and Harvey Palmer, “Understanding Variation in Public Support for European Integration,” European Journal of Political Research 27 no.1 (1995): 3-19.
Gabel/Palmer, “Understanding Variation “; Richard C. Eichenberg and Russell J. Dalton, “Europeans and the European Community: The Dynamics of Public Support for European Integration,” International Organization 47 no. 7 (1993): 507-534; Liesbet Hooghe and Garry Marks, Does Identity or Economic Rationality Drive Public Opinion on European Integration (PS Online 2004) available at: www.apsanet.org (accessed: June 1 2015); Robert Rohrschneider, “The Democracy Deficit and Mass Support for an EU-Wide Government,” in American Journal of Political Science 46 no.2 (2002): 463-475; Richard Rose and William T. Mishler, “Mass Reaction to Regime Change in Eastern Europe: Polarization or Leaders and Laggards,” British Journal of Political Science 24 no.2 (1994): 159-182; Alasdair Smith and Hellen Wallace, “The European Union: Toward a Policy for Europe,” International Affairs 70 (1994): 429-444.
Sean Carey, “Undivided Loyalties: Is national Identity an Obstacle to European Integration?” European Union Politics 3 no. 4 (2002): 387-413; Liesbet Hooghe and Gary Marks, “Calculation, Community and Cues: Public Opinion on European integration,” European Union Politics 6 no. 4 (2005): 419-443.
Hooghe/Marks, Does Identity or Economic Rationality Drive Public Opinion.
Roland Inglehart, “Cognitive Mobilization and European Identity,” Comparative Politics 3 no.1 (1970): 45-70; Joseph. H. Janssen, “Post-Materialism, Cognitive Mobilization and Support for European Integration,” British Journal of Political Science 21 (1991): 443-468.
Hooghe/Marks, “Calculation, Community and Cues”.
N. L. Benolken, “The Path towards Integration: Public Support for European Union among the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe,” Critique: A Worldwide Journal of Politics Spring (2003): 1-19; Goeffrey Evans and Stephen Whitefiled, “The Politics and Economics of Democratic Commitment: Support for Democracy in Transition Societies,” British Journal of Political Science 25 no XX (1995): 485-514.
Rachel Cichowski, “Western Dreams, Eastern Realities: Support for the European Union in Central and Eastern Europe,” Comparative Political Studies 33 no. 10 (2000): 1243-1278.
Anderson, “When in Doubt”; Piret Ehin, Determinants of Public Support for EU Membership: Data from the Baltic Countries,” European Journal of Political Research 40 no. 1 (2001): 31-56; M. Franklin, C. Van der Eijik, and M. Marsh, “Referendum Outcomes and Trust in Government: Public Support for Europe in the Wake of Maastricht,” Western European Politics 18 no. 3 (1995): 1101-1117.
I use ordinary least squares regression techniques to estimate the models. Robustness checks indicate that substantive results do not change when I run alternative models or use different coding schemes.